BERT-Deep CNN: State-of-the-Art for Sentiment Analysis of COVID-19 Tweets (preprint)

The free flow of information has been accelerated by the rapid development of social media technology. There has been a significant social and psychological impact on the population due to the outbreak of Coronavirus disease (COVID-19). The COVID-19 pandemic is one of the current events being discussed on social media platforms. In order to safeguard societies from this pandemic, studying people's emotions on social media is crucial. As a result of their particular characteristics, sentiment analysis of texts like tweets remains challenging. Sentiment analysis is a powerful text analysis tool. It automatically detects and analyzes opinions and emotions from unstructured data. Texts from a wide range of sources are examined by a sentiment analysis tool, which extracts meaning from them, including emails, surveys, reviews, social media posts, and web articles. To evaluate sentiments, natural language processing (NLP) and machine learning techniques are used, which assign weights to entities, topics, themes, and categories in sentences or phrases. Machine learning tools learn how to detect sentiment without human intervention by examining examples of emotions in text. In a pandemic situation, analyzing social media texts to uncover sentimental trends can be very helpful in gaining a better understanding of society's needs and predicting future trends. We intend to study society's perception of the COVID-19 pandemic through social media using state-of-the-art BERT and Deep CNN models. The superiority of BERT models over other deep models in sentiment analysis is evident and can be concluded from the comparison of the various research studies mentioned in this article.

Objective Evaluation of Deep Uncertainty Predictions for COVID-19 Detection (preprint)

Deep neural networks (DNNs) have been widely applied for detecting COVID-19 in medical images. Existing studies mainly apply transfer learning and other data representation strategies to generate accurate point estimates. The generalization power of these networks is always questionable due to being developed using small datasets and failing to report their predictive confidence. Quantifying uncertainties associated with DNN predictions is a prerequisite for their trusted deployment in medical settings. Here we apply and evaluate three uncertainty quantification techniques for COVID-19 detection using chest X-Ray (CXR) images. The novel concept of uncertainty confusion matrix is proposed and new performance metrics for the objective evaluation of uncertainty estimates are introduced. Through comprehensive experiments, it is shown that networks pertained on CXR images outperform networks pretrained on natural image datasets such as ImageNet. Qualitatively and quantitatively evaluations also reveal that the predictive uncertainty estimates are statistically higher for erroneous predictions than correct predictions. Accordingly, uncertainty quantification methods are capable of flagging risky predictions with high uncertainty estimates. We also observe that ensemble methods more reliably capture uncertainties during the inference. DNN-based solutions for COVID-19 detection have been mainly proposed without any principled mechanism for risk mitigation. Previous studies have mainly focused on on generating single-valued predictions using pretrained DNNs. In this paper, we comprehensively apply and comparatively evaluate three uncertainty quantification techniques for COVID-19 detection using chest X-Ray images. The novel concept of uncertainty confusion matrix is proposed and new performance metrics for the objective evaluation of uncertainty estimates are introduced for the first time. Using these new uncertainty performance metrics, we quantitatively demonstrate where and when we could trust DNN predictions for COVID-19 detection from chest X-rays. It is important to note the proposed novel uncertainty evaluation metrics are generic and could be applied for evaluation of probabilistic forecasts in all classification problems.

Accurate Prediction Using Triangular Type-2 Fuzzy Linear Regression (preprint)

Many works have been done to handle the uncertainties in the data using type 1 fuzzy regression. Few type 2 fuzzy regression works used interval type 2 for indeterminate modeling using type 1 fuzzy membership. The current survey proposes a triangular type-2 fuzzy regression (TT2FR) model to ameliorate the efficiency of the model by handling the uncertainty in the data. The triangular secondary membership function is used instead of widely used interval type models. In the proposed model, vagueness in primary and secondary fuzzy sets is minimized and also, a specified x-plane of observed value is included in the same {\alpha}- plane of the predicted value. Complex calculations of the type-2 fuzzy (T2F) model are simplified by reducing three dimensional type-2 fuzzy set (3DT2FS) into two dimensional interval type-2 fuzzy (2DIT2F) models. The current survey presents a new regression model of T2F by considering the more general form of T2F membership functions and thus avoids high complexity. The performance of the developed model is evaluated using the TAIEX and COVID-19 forecasting datasets. Our developed model reached the highest performance as compared to the other state-of-art techniques. Our developed method is ready to be tested with more uncertain data and has the potential to use to predict the weather and stock prediction.

Inhibiting NF-κB During Cytokine Storm in COVID-19: Potential Role of Natural Products as a Promising Therapeutic Approach (preprint)

Many inflammatory mechanisms are involved in the pathophysiology of COVID-19 infection. COVID-19 inhibits IFN antiviral responses, so we should expect an out-of-control viral replication. “Cytokine storms” occur due to the over-production of pro-inflammatory cytokines after an influx of neutrophils and monocytes/macrophages and may be responsible for the immunopathology of the lung involvement. Several cascades have been reported in the activation process of NF-κB. In this paper, to find new therapeutic options for COVID-19 infection, we reviewed some natural products that could potentially inhibit the NF-κB pathway. We found that sevoflurane, quercetin, resveratrol, curcumin, KIOM-C, bergenin, garcinia kola, shenfu, piperlongumine, wogonin, oroxylin, plantamajoside, naringin, ginseng, kaempferol, allium sativum L, illicium henryi, isoliquiritigenin, lianhua qingwen, magnoflorine, and ma Huang Tang might be effective in inhibiting the NF-KB pathway. These natural products could be helpful in the control of COVID-19 infections. However, larger clinical trials are needed to ascertain the efficacy of these products fully.

Inhibiting IL-6 During Cytokine Storm in COVID-19: Potential Role of Natural Products (preprint)

Plant species with anti-inflammatory properties might play an essential role in combatting COVID-19 via reducing cytokine storms. We aimed to review the extant evidence of the potential therapeutic efficacy of natural products against cytokine storms by inhibiting interleukin-6 (IL-6) as a major pathological mediator. Data were collected following an electronic search in major databases (Pubmed, Scopus, Web of Science, Google Scholar) and also preprint articles on preprint and medRxiv servers by using a combination of relevant keywords. Seventeen active compounds and medicinal plants were found and reviewed in the present review. Results of both in-vivo and in-vitro experiments conducted on these compounds showed that Phillyrin, SMFM, Qiangzhi decoction, curcumin, Shen-Fu, Forsythia, and Alpha-Mangostin inhibit the production of IL-6. Andrographolide and Liu Shen Wan have an inhibitory effect on releasing this agent, while Ilex Asprella and Deoxy-11,12-didehydroandrographolide and naringin reduce the expression of IL-6. Theaflavin and Cholorogenic acid inhibit the secretion of IL-6, Xuebijing, and Chai-Hu-Gui-Zi-Gan-Jiang-Tang and Lipanpaidu prescription can reduce the serum level of IL-6. These agents also effectively improve infected lungs, increase survival rates, and minimize tissue damage. Medicinal plants and their phytochemical ingredients with down-regulatory effects on the expression of IL-6 have a potential influence on the inhibition of cytokine storms during viral infection caused by COVID-19. Therefore, phytochemicals could be regarded as promising candidates for managing cytokine storm inflammatory responses due to COVID-19 infection.

Factors Associated With Mortality in Hospitalized Cardiovascular Disease Patients Infected With COVID-19 (preprint)

Background: To reduce mortality in hospitalized patients with COVID-19 and cardiovascular disease (CVD), it is necessary to understand the relationship between patient’s symptoms, risk factors, and comorbidities with their mortality rate.Method: To the best of our knowledge, this paper is the first which takes into account the determinants like risk factors, symptoms and comorbidities leading to mortality in CVD patients who are hospitalized with COVID-19. This study was conducted on 6600 hospitalized patients with CVD and COVID-19 recruited between January 2020 and January 2021 in Iran. All patients were diagnosed with previous history of CVD like angina, myocardial infarction, heart failure, cardiomyopathy, abnormal heart rhythms, and congenital heart disease before they were hospitalized for COVID-19. We collected data on patient’s signs and symptoms, clinical and paraclinical examinations, and any underlying comorbidities. t-test was used to determine the significant difference between the two deceased and alive groups. In addition, the relation between pairs of symptoms and pairs of comorbidities has been determined via correlation computation.Findings: Our findings suggest that signs and symptoms such as fever, cough, myalgia, chest pain, chills, abdominal pain, nausea, vomiting, diarrhea, and anorexia had no impact on patients' mortality. There was a significant correlation between COVID-19 cardiovascular patients’ mortality rate and symptoms such as headache, Loss of consciousness (LOC), oxygen saturation less than 93%, and need for mechanical ventilation. We observed no relationship in cardiac cases between mortality and comorbidities such as diabetes, cancer, pulmonary diseases, renal diseases, hematologic disorders, neurological diseases, and hypertension. The only risk factor that has impact on patients’ mortality was age. Other risk factors such as smoking status or addiction had no impact.Interpretation: Our results might help physicians identify early symptoms, comorbidities, and risk factors related to mortality in cardiovascular disease patients hospitalized for COVID-19.Funding Information: There is no funding.Declaration of Interests: The authors declare that there is no conflict of interest.Ethics Approval Statement: The study was approved by the Semnan Hospital Ethics Committee. All the patients completed written consent form before their enrolment in the data collection procedure.

Time series forecasting of new cases and new deaths rate for COVID-19 using deep learning methods (preprint)

The first known case of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was identified in December 2019. It has spread worldwide, leading to an ongoing pandemic, imposed restrictions and costs to many countries. Predicting the number of new cases and deaths during this period can be a useful step in predicting the costs and facilities required in the future. The purpose of this study is to predict new cases and deaths rate one, three and seven-day ahead during the next 100 days. The motivation for predicting every n days (instead of just every day) is the investigation of the possibility of computational cost reduction and still achieving reasonable performance. Such a scenario may be encountered in real-time forecasting of time series. Six different deep learning methods are examined on the data adopted from the WHO website. Three methods are LSTM, Convolutional LSTM, and GRU. The bidirectional extension is then considered for each method to forecast the rate of new cases and new deaths in Australia and Iran countries. This study is novel as it carries out a comprehensive evaluation of the aforementioned three deep learning methods and their bidirectional extensions to perform prediction on COVID-19 new cases and new death rate time series. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time that Bi-GRU and Bi-Conv-LSTM models are used for prediction on COVID-19 new cases and new deaths time series. The evaluation of the methods is presented in the form of graphs and Friedman statistical test. The results show that the bidirectional models have lower errors than other models. A several error evaluation metrics are presented to compare all models, and finally, the superiority of bidirectional methods is determined. This research could be useful for organisations working against COVID-19 and determining their long-term plans.

Identification of clinical features associated with mortality in COVID-19 patients (preprint)

Background To prevent infectious diseases, it is necessary to understand how they are spread and their clinical features. Early identification of risk factors and clinical features is needed to identify critically ill patients, provide suitable treatments, and prevent mortality. Methods We conducted a prospective study on COVID-19 patients referred to a tertiary hospital in Iran between March and November 2020. Of the 3008 patients (mean age 59.3 years, range 1 to 100 years), 1324 were women. We investigated COVID-19 related mortality and its association with clinical features including headache, chest pain, symptoms on CT, hospitalization, time to infection, history of neurological disorders, having a single or multiple risk factors, fever, myalgia, dizziness, seizure, abdominal pain, nausea, vomiting, diarrhoea and anorexia. Findings There was a significant association between COVID-19 mortality and old age, headache, chest pain, respiratory distress, low respiratory rate, oxygen saturation less than 93%, need for a mechanical ventilator, having symptoms on CT, hospitalization, time to infection, history of hypertension, neurological disorders, cardiovascular diseases and having a risk factor or multiple risk factors. In contrast, there was no significant association between mortality and gender, fever, myalgia, dizziness, seizure, abdominal pain, nausea, vomiting, diarrhoea and anorexia. Interpretation Our results might help identify early symptoms related to COVID-19 and better manage patients clinically.

CNN-AE: Convolution Neural Network combined with Autoencoder approach to detect survival chance of COVID-19 patients (preprint)

Today, the use of artificial intelligence methods to diagnose and predict infectious and non-infectious diseases has attracted so much attention. Currently, COVID-19 is considered a new virus which has caused so many deaths worldwide. Due to the pandemic nature of COVID-19, the automated tools for the clinical diagnostic of this disease are highly desired. Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) have shown outstanding classification performance on image datasets. Up to our knowledge, COVID computer aided diagnosis systems based on CNNs and clinical information have been never analyzed or explored to date. Moreover, Most of existing literature on COVID-19 focuses on distinguishing infected individuals from non-infected ones. In this paper, we propose a novel method named CNN-AE to predict survival chance of COVID-19 patients using a CNN trained on clinical information. To further increase the prediction accuracy, we use the CNN in combination with an autoencoder. Our method is one of the first that aims to predict survival chance of already infected patients. We rely on clinical data to carry out the prediction. The motivation is that the required resources to prepare CT images are expensive and limited compared to the resources required to collect clinical data such as blood pressure, liver disease, etc. We evaluate our method on a publicly available clinical dataset of deceased and recovered patients which we have collected. Careful analysis of the dataset properties is also presented which consists of important features extraction and correlation computation between features. Since most of COVID-19 patients are usually recovered, the number of deceased samples of our dataset is low leading to data imbalance. To remedy this issue, a data augmentation procedure based on autoencoders is proposed. To demonstrate the generality of our augmentation method, we train random forest and Naïve Bayes on our dataset with and without augmentation and compare their performance. We also evaluate our method on another dataset for further generality verification. Experimental results reveal the superiority of CNN-AE method compared to the standard CNN as well as other methods such as random forest and Naïve Bayes. COVID-19 detection average accuracy of CNN-AE is 96.05% which is higher than CNN average accuracy of 92.49%. To show that clinical data can be used as a reliable dataset for COVID-19 survival chance prediction, CNN-AE is compared with a standard CNN which is trained on CT images.

Combining a Convolutional Neural Network with Autoencoders to Predict the Survival Chance of COVID-19 Patients (preprint)

COVID-19 has caused many deaths worldwide. The automation of the diagnosis of this virus is highly desired. Convolutional neural networks (CNNs) have shown outstanding classification performance on image datasets. To date, it appears that COVID computer-aided diagnosis systems based on CNNs and clinical information have not yet been analysed or explored. We propose a novel method, named the CNN-AE, to predict the survival chance of COVID-19 patients using a CNN trained with clinical information. Notably, the required resources to prepare CT images are expensive and limited compared to those required to collect clinical data, such as blood pressure, liver disease, etc. We evaluated our method using a publicly available clinical dataset that we collected. The dataset properties were carefully analysed to extract important features and compute the correlations of features. A data augmentation procedure based on autoencoders (AEs) was proposed to balance the dataset. The experimental results revealed that the average accuracy of the CNN-AE (96.05%) was higher than that of the CNN (92.49%). To demonstrate the generality of our augmentation method, we trained some existing mortality risk prediction methods on our dataset (with and without data augmentation) and compared their performances. We also evaluated our method using another dataset for further generality verification. To show that clinical data can be used for COVID-19 survival chance prediction, the CNN-AE was compared with multiple pre-trained deep models that were tuned based on CT images.

Fusion of convolution neural network, support vector machine and Sobel filter for accurate detection of COVID-19 patients using X-ray images (preprint)

The coronavirus (COVID-19) is currently the most common contagious disease which is prevalent all over the world. The main challenge of this disease is the primary diagnosis to prevent secondary infections and its spread from one person to another. Therefore, it is essential to use an automatic diagnosis system along with clinical procedures for the rapid diagnosis of COVID-19 to prevent its spread. Artificial intelligence techniques using computed tomography (CT) images of the lungs and chest radiography have the potential to obtain high diagnostic performance for Covid-19 diagnosis. In this study, a fusion of convolutional neural network (CNN), support vector machine (SVM), and Sobel filter is proposed to detect COVID-19 using X-ray images. A new X-ray image dataset was collected and subjected to high pass filter using a Sobel filter to obtain the edges of the images. Then these images are fed to CNN deep learning model followed by SVM classifier with ten-fold cross validation strategy. This method is designed so that it can learn with not many data. Our results show that the proposed CNN-SVM with Sobel filtering (CNN-SVM+Sobel) achieved the highest classification accuracy of 99.02% in accurate detection of COVID-19. It showed that using Sobel filter can improve the performance of CNN. Unlike most of the other researches, this method does not use a pre-trained network. We have also validated our developed model using six public databases and obtained the highest performance. Hence, our developed model is ready for clinical application

Uncertainty-Aware Semi-Supervised Method Using Large Unlabeled and Limited Labeled COVID-19 Data (preprint)

The new coronavirus has caused more than one million deaths and continues to spread rapidly. This virus targets the lungs, causing respiratory distress which can be mild or severe. The X-ray or computed tomography (CT) images of lungs can reveal whether the patient is infected with COVID-19 or not. Many researchers are trying to improve COVID-19 detection using artificial intelligence. Our motivation is to develop an automatic method that can cope with scenarios in which preparing labeled data is time consuming or expensive. In this article, we propose a Semi-supervised Classification using Limited Labeled Data (SCLLD) relying on Sobel edge detection and Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) to automate the COVID-19 diagnosis. The GAN discriminator output is a probabilistic value which is used for classification in this work. The proposed system is trained using 10,000 CT scans collected from Omid Hospital, whereas a public dataset is also used for validating our system. The proposed method is compared with other state-of-the-art supervised methods such as Gaussian processes. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time a semi-supervised method for COVID-19 detection is presented. Our system is capable of learning from a mixture of limited labeled and unlabeled data where supervised learners fail due to a lack of sufficient amount of labeled data. Thus, our semi-supervised training method significantly outperforms the supervised training of Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) when labeled training data is scarce. The 95% confidence intervals for our method in terms of accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity are 99.56 +- 0.20%, 99.88 +- 0.24%, and 99.40 +- 0.18%, respectively, whereas intervals for the CNN (trained supervised) are 68.34 +- 4.11%, 91.2 +- 6.15%, and 46.40 +- 5.21%.

Objective Evaluation of Deep Uncertainty Predictions for COVID-19 Detection (preprint)

Deep neural networks (DNNs) have been widely applied for detecting COVID-19 in medical images. Existing studies mainly apply transfer learning and other data representation strategies to generate accurate point estimates. The generalization power of these networks is always questionable due to being developed using small datasets and failing to report their predictive confidence. Quantifying uncertainties associated with DNN predictions is a prerequisite for their trusted deployment in medical settings. Here we apply and evaluate three uncertainty quantification techniques for COVID-19 detection using chest X-Ray (CXR) images. The novel concept of uncertainty confusion matrix is proposed and new performance metrics for the objective evaluation of uncertainty estimates are introduced. Through comprehensive experiments, it is shown that networks pertained on CXR images outperform networks pretrained on natural image datasets such as ImageNet. Qualitatively and quantitatively evaluations also reveal that the predictive uncertainty estimates are statistically higher for erroneous predictions than correct predictions. Accordingly, uncertainty quantification methods are capable of flagging risky predictions with high uncertainty estimates. We also observe that ensemble methods more reliably capture uncertainties during the inference.

Automated Detection and Forecasting of COVID-19 using Deep Learning Techniques: A Review (preprint)

Coronavirus, or COVID-19, is a hazardous disease that has endangered the health of many people around the world by directly affecting the lungs. COVID-19 is a medium-sized, coated virus with a single-stranded RNA. This virus has one of the largest RNA genomes and is approximately 120 nm. The X-Ray and computed tomography (CT) imaging modalities are widely used to obtain a fast and accurate medical diagnosis. Identifying COVID-19 from these medical images is extremely challenging as it is time-consuming, demanding, and prone to human errors. Hence, artificial intelligence (AI) methodologies can be used to obtain consistent high performance. Among the AI methodologies, deep learning (DL) networks have gained much popularity compared to traditional machine learning (ML) methods. Unlike ML techniques, all stages of feature extraction, feature selection, and classification are accomplished automatically in DL models. In this paper, a complete survey of studies on the application of DL techniques for COVID-19 diagnostic and automated segmentation of lungs is discussed, concentrating on works that used X-Ray and CT images. Additionally, a review of papers on the forecasting of coronavirus prevalence in different parts of the world with DL techniques is presented. Lastly, the challenges faced in the automated detection of COVID-19 using DL techniques and directions for future research are discussed.

Risk Factors Prediction, Clinical Outcomes, and Mortality of COVID-19 Patients (preprint)

Background: Preventing communicable diseases requires understanding the spread, epidemiology, clinical features, progression, and prognosis of the disease. Early identification of risk factors and clinical outcomes might help to identify critically ill patients, provide proper treatment and prevent mortality. Methods: We conducted a prospective study in patients with flu-like symptoms referred to the imaging department of a tertiary hospital in IRAN between 3 March 2020 and 8 April 2020. Patients with COVID-19 were followed up to check their health condition after two months. The categorical data between groups were analyzed by Fisher exact test and continuous data by Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test. Findings: 319 patients (mean age 45.48 years, 177 women) were enrolled. Fever, dyspnea, weakness, shivering, C-reactive protein (CRP), fatigue, dry cough, anorexia, anosmia, ageusia, dizziness, sweating and age were the most important symptoms of COVID-19 infection. Traveling in past three months, asthma, taking corticosteroids, liver disease, rheumatological disease, cough with sputum, eczema, conjunctivitis, tobacco use, and chest pain did not have any relationship with COVID-19. Interpretation: Finding clinical symptoms for early diagnosis of COVID-19 is a critical part of prevention. These symptoms can help in the assessment of disease progression. To the best of our knowledge, some of the effective features on the mortality due to COVID-19 are investigated for the first time in this research. Funding: None